Monday, October 04, 2004


Will Undecided Voters Give Kerry the Election? has an interesting theory regarding races with an incumbent. Basically undecided voters will break for the challenger about 80%+ of the time. This means that while Bush seems to have a slight edge at the moment he is really behind.

MysteryPollster has some good empirical examples of the 'undecided rule' on his blog. This also passes the common sense test. Why would someone be undecided in an election with an incumbent? Because they know what the incumbent is about and they want something better. That's an opportunity for a challenger and a bad thing for the incumbent.

Meanwhile, is still betting that Bush will still win. This will be an interesting test of the so-called 'prediction markets'. One aspect that I haven't seen explored yet is whether the political parties can game the 'prediction markets' for spin value. The stock market & other established financial markets require too much money to move anything but penny stocks for any serious period of time but how can we know the prediction markets won't be hit by manipulation?


hispanic vote up for grabs - good news lurch has ties with the hispanic community: they clean his house!

U.S. unemployment rate declines to 5.4 percent

Lurch bleeding black voters
Different anonymous here.

One thing that is being glossed over is the fact that the African-American vote, the Hispanic vote, and the Jewish vote is not going to turn out for Kerry to the same degree that it did for Clinton in 1992 and 1996 and Gore in 2000. Kerry is not Clinton. He's not even Gore.
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